A natural disaster
A natural disaster can be of any kind that includes drought/famine, floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, volcanos, etc. In a disaster situation, individuals face the threat of death, emotional/physical impacts, and massive destruction of possessions.
It is challenging to predict the occurrence of a natural disaster. It may show signs or may occur abruptly. The great famine in Europe loosely referred to as the “The Dad Life” was mainly caused by a potatoes bright (natural disaster) which infected the potato fields. Nobody would have predicted that in any way. However, that was the short-term cause.
The long-term cause was the landlord’s absents, over-dependence on a single crop, and more on the economic policy (capitalism), which governed most countries by then. Therefore, it is possible to forecast the long-term causes than the acute once.
In general, the economic policy/models adopted would provide a good baseline for prediction. Economic policy should include government involvement. The government serves a significant purpose in giving a regular assessment to firms through the agricultural department — data produced during an evaluation, including the GDP, can determine whether or not famine will occur. Do the firm’s excises single crop firming, or they have variety? Is firms (small scale/large scale) output increasing or decreasing? All this and other information would provide a perfect platform for predicting Irish potato famine.