Congressional Elections and Public opinion
Institution
Name
Congressional Elections and Public opinion
The Congress elections in the United States are scheduled for November, 2020. The elections take place every two years and use popular vote to choose winners. The congressional election comprise of the US House of Representatives and the US Senate. Members of the US House of Representatives serve two year terms. The election of the members takes place during the midterms and the presidential election year. Various factors affect the outcome of congressional elections such as the incumbency advantage phenomenon, the nature of the primaries, caucus decisions and the general elections (Jacobson & Carson, 2019). The outcome of the elections are important since majority of legislation in the country that determine the composition of the US government is passed at the state level. However, public opinion polls and the midterm elections in the US are known to influence the outcome of elections and are a major part of the electoral process (Donovan et al, 2019). The essay will explore the United States House of Representatives race in Alabama for 2nd Congressional District, 2020.
The incumbent US House of Representatives at Alabama 2nd District is Republican Martha Roby. The candidate was first elected in 2010, winning by a landslide against the Democratic incumbent Bobby Bright. The Republican Party candidate, Roby has won the past successive five elections. However, the current seat is open since the incumbent has expressed that she would not seek re-election in 2020. The race is less complicated since winning against an incumbent has major challenges. The incumbents can influence the outcome of the elections since they participate in deciding the boundaries of voting districts, they are better funded, and are better recognized by the voters (Brewer & Maisel, 2020). Jeff Coleman and Barry Moore are the potential candidates to succeed Roby and are running for the Republican primary runoff for Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District scheduled for July, 2020. The candidates had a close runoff in the primaries. Coleman won in the March primary by a small margin compared to his close contender Barry. A candidate needs to amass more than 50% to win the primary outright. The Republicans are the main contenders since they are the majority in the house.
Jeff Coleman is a businessman and has been endorsed by the US Chamber of Commerce and the Business Council of Alabama. He has positioned himself as the job creator in the race. His campaign centers on economic development. The key message in his campaign is a promise to secure the borders, to support the military and the veterans, to create jobs and to strengthen the economy (n.d., 2020). He is leading in fundraising. However, there has been allegations of fraud labelled against a company that is associated with Coleman (Lyman, 2020). The campaign team has however refuted the claims and labelled them as hearsay. Barry Moore was a member of the Alabama House of Representatives from 2010-2018. He is confident in his legislative record and service in the military. He has pledged to support veterans, to lower taxes and to reduce government regulations (n.d., 2020). He considers himself to be the working man’s candidate. He cites difference in expenditure between him and his opponent during the primaries in March. He had previously ran for the 2nd District Republican nomination in 2018 and came third in the primary. Moore prides himself in his proven track record. The key message in Moore’s campaign is he sponsored legislation benefitting the military and the veterans, he is a recognized conservative law maker who fought for lower taxes and less government regulation, and that he was the first to endorse Donald Trump (n.d., 2020).
According to the public opinion polls, the race ratings for Alabama 2nd district House of Representatives as at April 14, 2020 indicates that the likely candidate who will win in the elections is a Republican (Wilson, 2020). The Republican Party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive. The ratings are informed by factors such as polling, candidate quality and election results history in the race’s district (Donovan et al, 2019). In the previous elections since the 2010 elections, Alabama has voted Republican five times. According to an article by Wilson (2020), Coleman is more likely to win in the coming primaries. The author refers to a poll that was conducted by We Ask America that indicated that Coleman had built a good image among the Republicans (Wilson, 2020). Also, the opinion polls state that Coleman has a massive lead and could avoid a runoff or he stands a chance of winning with a landslide in case of a runoff.
The Alabama 2nd District is most likely to incline towards the national political mood going by the 2018 elections (The Cook Political Report, 2020). The winning candidate has to be inclined to the majority party to have a mileage. The majority party determines who leads important congressional committee since the president stands a better chance of accomplishing his agenda if his party controls the two houses of congress (Brewer & Maisel, 2020). Jeff Coleman has received endorsements by key organizations. Also, the candidate has amassed financial strength the gives the team an advantage over the opponents. Public opinion polls have also favored the candidate giving him an edge over the opponent (Donovan et al, 2019). However, Moore has a proven track record and experience in legislation. In his campaign message, he points to be the first to have endorsed Donald Trump. By identifying with Trump, he stands to benefit since the people of Alabama like Donald trump. The allegations against his opponent might also work for his advantage. However, Coleman stands a better chance of winning since the team are better funded, they are better known, they have endorsement by key organizations and they have favorable opinion poll rating (Jacobson & Carson, 2019).
In conclusion, Congress elections are an integral part of the US elections. The Alabama 2nd District House of Representatives race is dominated by the Republicans. The current contenders for the House Representative position are Barry Moore and Jeff Coleman both from the Republican Party. The race towards the primaries is tight with a possible runoff. However, Jeff Coleman is the leading candidate according to the current public opinion polls. The essay has proven that public opinion polls are an integral part of the US electoral process and that they shape how people vote. Also, funding a successful election is key if a candidate is to win. Finally, going by the current opinion poll status, level of campaign funding and the level of support that Coleman has received, he is the most likely candidate to win the upcoming congress elections in November, 2020.
References
(n.d.). (2020). Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District election, Retrieved from https://ballotpedia.org/Alabama’s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2020
Brewer, M. D., & Maisel, L. S. (2020). Parties and elections in America: The electoral process. Maryland: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers.
Donovan, K., Kellstedt, P. M., Key, E. M., & Lebo, M. J. (2019). Motivated reasoning, public opinion, and presidential approval. Political Behavior, 1-21.
Jacobson, G. C., & Carson, J. L. (2019). The politics of congressional elections. Maryland: Rowman & Littlefield.
Lyman, B. (2020, February 7). Former U.S. Attorney criticizes Jeff Coleman over 2015 fraud case. Retrieved from https://www.montgomeryadvertiser.com/story/news/2020/02/07/former-u-s-attorney-criticizes-jeff-coleman-over-2015-fraud-case/4690673002/
The Cook Political Report. (2020, April 10). House Race ratings. Retrieved from https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings
Wilson, B. (2020, January 22). Jeff Coleman Overwhelming Favorite To Win AL-02 In Latest Polling. Retrieved from https://www.bamapolitics.com/41453/jeff-coleman-overwhelming-favorite-to-win-al02-in-latest-polling/