Future Foresight Studies

Future Foresight Studies

Question 1

Change is surging across the energy sector, and the energy mix around the world is increasingly shifting from fossil fuel to renewables. Moreover, more than 70%  percent of Australian and European experts are of the view that the worldwide transition to the use of renewable energy is both realistic and feasible. As a result, many multinationals are increasingly opting for renewable energy sources either through direct investment in generating capacity or through utilities. Further, numerous countries, regions, organizations, cities, and islands have set the full transition to renewable energy targets, thereby proving that the change has garnered the much needed political will. Stakeholders believe that the cost of renewable energy sources will significantly drop in the next decade. For instance, solar photovoltaic and wind are presently cost-competitive in most OECD countries (Worldfuturecouncil, 2019). The future of energy will witness considerable changes in terms of generation, transmission, distribution.

Private and public organizations are taking initiatives to decarbonize the environment, and the sector is being altered by major forces such as digitization, decentralization, shifting prices and demand, and more sustainability issues as part of public policy. New ecosystems are being created, and solar is set to become the largest source of energy – outpacing gas, coal, and wind in terms of newly installed capacity every year. Accordingly, energy systems in the U.A.E. and the rest of the world will considerably change in the coming decade. The future of the energy industry landscape will be transformed by innovations that will move towards a more efficient, convenient, and more eco-friendly infrastructure.

The generation of energy is expected to be decentralized, whereby energy-producing plants will be commonplace and smaller in scale (The ecologist 2019). These generators of low-cost renewable energy will provide energy at the local level, which will enable many people to participate in generating and trading energy.

Additionally, the localized production will affect transmission and distribution since it will happen at the local level, thereby reducing the need for expensive power lines and shipping costs associated with transporting fossil fuels such as crude oil and coal. Moreover, Owusu and  Asumadu-Sarkodie (2016) point out that alternative renewable energy sources will offer energy security since they are distributed around the world compared to fossil fuels and less traded in the energy market. Energy security is of importance to countries as prolonged interferences can lead to severe economic and social impacts. Further, the internet of things will affect power transmission, whereby it will be used to satisfy excess power demands during specific times. The internet of things will be incorporated into interconnected digital systems to determine the energy demands of various subsectors within a given region. Thus, localized production and technological innovation will change the distribution and transmission of energy.

Overall, the energy sector is set to undergo significant changes in the future due to public and private initiatives.The sector is witnessing digitization, decentralization, shifting prices and demand and more sustainability issues as part of public policy. Consequently, expert opinion has led many multinationals to increasingly opt for renewable energy sources either through direct investment in generating capacity or through utilities. Additionally, the future of energy will witness considerable changes in terms of generation, transmission, distribution. The generation of energy is expected to be decentralized, whereby energy-producing plants will be commonplace and smaller in scale. Moreover, localized production will impact transmission and distribution since it will happen at the local level.

 

Question 2

Many megacities are struggling with ever-increasing inflows, which are stretching already scarce resources. Further, projections indicate that most world inhabitants will occupy urban centers in the future. Cities are, therefore, leveraging technology to help in managing urban areas leading to smart cities. A smart city refers to an urban development that incorporates information technology for the effective management of assets and resources. Smart cities seek to reconcile social-economic and ecological challenges with technological innovations such as the internet of things and cloud computing (U.N.U., 2016). The main objective of smart cities is to enhance the quality of life and cost reduction. The main specificities of smart cities include smart management, mobility, housing, lifestyle and smart economy. Many regions and countries are starting to embrace the concept, including Singapore, Spain, The U.K., Norway, and The U.A.E., among others.  The smart cities are poised to change the life of their inhabitants in many ways. Focusing on the U.A.E., the smart cities will affect social life in terms of civic engagement, commuting, environmental protection, healthcare, and safety.

Smart cities will improve civic engagement and participation due to open data systems. Enhanced data sharing will promote transparency of governance since everyone will easily contribute and participate. The environment will be protected in better ways through smart trash collection. Sensor equipped smart waste bins will allow collectors to monitor waste levels and optimize their activities. Further, digital systems will gather data from different sections of the city concerning various environmental aspects, including pollution levels. Greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced by monitoring energy consumption. Safety will be enhanced by using interlinked technologies in techniques such as real-time crime hot spot mapping, predictive policing, and gunshot detection, among others. Such initiatives are expected to reduce the prevalence of crime significantly.

Additionally, the commuting experience will change through the use of smart roads, which will increasingly use automated vehicles. These roads will communicate with the computerized cars to optimize traffic, which in turn will promote the safety of commuters and other road users. Such innovations will decrease commute time while enhancing safety. U.A.E. residents can also expect smart cities to affect how they access healthcare. For instance, smart cities will use technologies to prevent and treat chronic disease. Facial recognition will be used to identify affected residents in times of outbreaks. Data-driven health interventions will rely on analytics to reduce the burden of illness as well as in prenatal and postnatal healthcare. Thus, smart cities will affect U.A.E. residents’ social life in terms of civic engagement, commuting, safety, and healthcare.

In summary, rapid urbanization around the world has called for better efficient use of resources through better management. As a result, many cities are adopting smart cities, which will optimize the use of resources by leveraging technological innovations. Countries such as the U.A.E. will be affected by smart cities in terms of civic engagement, commuting, environmental protection, healthcare, and safety. Commuting will use smart roads, while health will encompass the use of data-centered health interventions. Security will improve through predictive policing and real-time crime hot spot mapping.

Question 3

 

Artificial intelligence (A.I.) describes machines that exhibit traits of the human mind, such as problem-solving and learning. Artificial intelligence may also refer to the simulations of human knowledge using programmed devices that mimic human actions and thinking (Zawacki-Richter, Marín, Bond & Gouverneur, 2019). The ideal attribute of A.I. is the ability to rationalize actions with the best likelihood of achieving specific objectives. A.I. is being applied in many industries and sectors, including healthcare, finance, automotive, aviation, and the energy sector. A.I, is expected to enable capabilities that could entirely define how the industry approaches both entire projects and individual tasks. Artificial intelligence, coupled with smart software, cloud computing, and supercomputers, will change the energy sector in terms of the nature of work, data dititizalization, forecasting, and embracing renewable energy.

The prospect of lower costs and faster speed of various A.I. backed processes makes the use of the technology attractive for the energy sector. Newman (2019) explains that robotics and A.I. are poised to change the nature of work within the energy sector by shifting focus from on-site to higher-skilled work in control centers. Accordingly, grid operators, power companies, and oil majors are beginning to adopt A.I. based robotics and automation. Further, A.I. can help the sector with data digitalization. As many industries shift to personalized digitized service, A.I can help the energy sector catch up. The energy sector generates vast amounts of data, and A.I. can assist in its collection , processing, management, and storage.  A digitized industry will help in developing better operational methods and competitive strategies in a fluctuating global economy. Thus, A.I. will improve the energy sector in changing job roles and assist in digitizing.

Additionally, A.I. can also be used in forecasting to enable energy-saving decisions. Power grid operators have to collect a lot of data that needs continuous monitoring, analysis, and execution to ensure supply meets demand. The data also ensures that there is smooth management, and A.I. can create forecasts concerning electricity generation, demand, and the weather to reduce the need for backup mechanisms (Gagan, 2018). Such predictions can help in intelligent decision making leading to better management of production. Moreover, there is a major shift to non-fossil fuels, which is marked decentralization and digitization as more consumers become generators of electricity. Thus, the energy sector should also embrace technology as it continues to reshape the industry. .A.I. will help in developing a networked and decentralized renewable energy-based power generation that will automatically adjust when necessary to minimize waste while balancing the whole system. Therefore, A.I. will help the energy sector to adapt to renewable energy technologies and develop forecasting models.

In summary, A.I. coupled with smart software, cloud computing, and supercomputers, will change the energy sector in terms of the nature of work, data dititizalization, forecasting, and embracing renewable energy. Robotics and A.I. will change the nature of work within the energy sector by shifting focus from on-site to higher-skilled work in control centers. A.I. will also help the industry with data digitization. A.I. will also be used in forecasting to enable energy-saving decisions and to develop a networked and decentralized renewable energy power generation.

 

References

Newman, N. (2019, July 16). A.I.: the energy industry’s untapped resource. Retrieved from https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2019/07/ai-the-energy-industry-s-untapped-resource/

Owusu, P. A., & Asumadu-Sarkodie, S. (2016). A review of renewable energy sources, sustainability issues and climate change mitigation. Cogent Engineering, 3(1). doi:10.1080/23311916.2016.1167990

Theecologist. (2019). What is the future of energy? Retrieved from https://theecologist.org/2019/jan/04/what-future-energy

U.N.U. (2016). Smart Cities for Sustainable Development. Retrieved from https://unu.edu/projects/smart-cities-for-sustainable-development.html#outline

Worldfuturecouncil. (2019, May 13). Shaping the future for 100% renewable energy. Retrieved from https://www.worldfuturecouncil.org/shaping-future-100-renewable-energy/?gclid=CjwKCAiAy9jyBRA6EiwAeclQhDiPw-4bMQgfwdwZjN1z9xQ_nEsFO5Sn64EVZUSZea6lRQkC9amqaBoCV1QQAvD_BwE

Zawacki-Richter, O., Marín, V. I., Bond, M., & Gouverneur, F. (2019). Systematic review of research on artificial intelligence applications in higher education – where are the educators? International Journal of Educational Technology in Higher Education, 16(1). doi:10.1186/s41239-019-0171-0