HOW DOES THE WITHDRAWAL OF THE U.S. FROM THE PARIS AGREEMENT AFFECT GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE GOVERNANCE?
On 1st June 2017, President Donald Trump announced the decision to withdraw the United States from the Paris agreement. Mr Trump claims the deal was unfair to the U.S. because it would impose a significant economic burden on American taxpayers, businesses, and workers. Ever since President Trump administration has created policies and regulations focused on the ‘America First Energy Plan.’ The plan is centred on maximizing the use of U.S. energy resources, lowering energy costs as well as eliminating America’s dependence on imported oil. As the United States is the world’s leading economy and the second-largest greenhouse gas emitter, President Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement have generated profound impact on global climate governance.
President Trump’s changing Climate policy
Since President Trump administration took office in January 2017, energy and climate policy has been subjected to tremendous changes. The president has implemented a domestic energy policy to revitalize the ailing coal, gas and oil industries and the nuclear power industry. Also, he has adopted an international energy policy that aims to increase U.S. energy exports, maximize energy independence, as well as climate policy centred on cutting emission constraints[1]. In particular, during the first weeks of his presidency, Trump ordered the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to repeal the Clean Power Plan (that was intended to reduce greenhouse gas emissions) and change its process completely[2]. Moreover, his administration continues to promote relaxation of regulation for emission reduction, to achieve a decline in the Clean Power Plan effectiveness. From an economic perspective, President Trump believes his action will help to increase energy security, fuel growth and create more jobs.
Further, President Trump announced to pull the United States from the Paris Agreement. The Paris Climate Agreement consists of several countries, including the United States, Germany, France, and China, among others. It is focused on setting responsibilities and goals for the members of the treaty. The primary purpose of the Paris Climate Agreement is to limit the increase of the Earth’s temperature levels[3]. All countries are required to take the necessary step to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, which directly impacts temperatures. Also, countries should attain differentiated responsibilities” by helping underdeveloped countries with their renewable energy projects.
Trump decision to withdraw from the Agreement was predominantly driven by his personal preferences and domestic politics, rather than economic burden the Paris Agreement would impose. The administration relishes reversing the climate policy of his predecessors[4]. Economically, Trump opposes Obama notion that the Paris Agreement advances U.S. climate security, support low carbon economy and renewable energy industry. Also, it is crucial for maintaining the America competitive edge and securing employment. Trump believes that the Agreement weakens U.S. competitiveness as well as damage the fossil fuel industry and employment.
The adjustment of the America energy and climate policies reflects the economic, political and social characteristics of America. Trump administration has almost renounced the climate policy of his predecessors and ignored the role it plays in the international community. Politically, climate policy change in the U.S. lacks political accord between the Republicans and the Democrats, thus becoming a gradually fragmented public issue. Moreover, due to America climate diplomacy, Trump has disrupted positive climate policy outcomes reached by past presidents. The policy readjustment has been greatly influenced by his economic interest to enhance industrial competitiveness and increase employment[5]. On the other hand, form a social perspective, Americans has criticized climate policy change. Nevertheless, several republican has supported the decision for withdrawal.
Potential Impact of Trump’s Climate Policy change
Climate change is one of the major problems in global governance. The influence of Trump policy to withdrawal U.S. from the Paris Agreement should not be underestimated. The international community was shocked by President Trump declaration to pull from the Agreement due to the critical role the U.S. played in the international climate governance and negotiation[6]. The general and long-term developing trends in the global climate governance indicate advancement of low-carbon, green and sustainable development. However, Trump’s climate change policy could be seen as a shift in this continuous upward trend.
The U.S. exit from the Paris Agreement indicates opposition to climate justice and sustainable development in times of global climate change. President Trump renouncing the climate policy of Obama will damage the global perception of the U.S. a responsible country. More importantly, the action will weaken the alliance between the United States and the European Union. The E.U. leaders such as Germany Chancellor, Angela Merkel posited that the U.S. has become unreliable and the E.U. and U.S. alliance have been permanently damaged.
Therefore, the U.S. risks losing its leadership in addressing the pressing climate issues as a result of its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement[7].
As mentioned, the United States is the second-largest producer of greenhouse gases. Trump’s climate policy greatly influences global climate governance. Several American European allies have petitioned against the state exit from the Paris treat, contending that it would weaken its implementation measures and undermine the determination of other countries to make their strong cuts. The decision to withdraw from the Agreement would mean that America is now a consumer instead of a supplier responding to global climate change governance[8]. Notably, the shift from supplier to consumer will have a negative impact on the global supply of public goods as well as affect other supplier’s willingness to respond to climate governance. This will adversely affect the effectiveness of the Paris agreement adoption.
Further, one of the President Trump reason to remove the U.S. from the Agreement is that it could impair the domestic economic, thus causing unemployment. Trump believes that large developing nations like India and China, made partial Agreement against the US[9]. These countries lack adequate mitigation effort. The U.S. would inflict more burden on large developing countries by negating the Common but Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR) principle. The principle of CBDR recognizes that all countries have shared but differentiated responsibility in the international pursuit of sustainable development. The developing countries would be required to raise their emissions mitigation goals, enhance technology transfer and increase financial support.
U.S. climate policy could slow the advancement of clean energy technologies. One, the government may cut support for research, which means new technologies will not be developed due to increased cost. Many claims that improving clean technologies could accelerate GHG emission reduction throughout the world; a cut in research funding is bad news. Second, the U.S. would reduce government financial support for low carbon energy investment. Obama administration positively discouraged coal-fired power investment in developing countries[10]. The Trump government, on the other hand, would its power
To support carbon-intensive investment in the U.S. and foreign countries. For example funding, coal-fired power stations to promote U.S. coal exports as well as the U.S. engineering-construction business
Lack of America commitment to implement the Paris Agreement objectives would force large developing countries to take on more burden. For instance, the Trump administration’s failure to accomplish its climate funding commitment to developing states and limiting financial support in the Green Climate Fund has greatly reduced global confidence in low-carbon investment, thus increasing financial burden for developing countries. Further, America has minimized financial aids to the international organization addressing climate change, such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)[11].
Finally, U.S. withdrawal would lead to the expectation of some developing countries to do more. China, for example, is expected to take over global climate governance leadership. However, it is essential to evaluate China’s capability before taking such an obligation.
America retreat on climate would allow China to fill the leadership vacuum. At present, the U.S. makes limited efforts in the reduction of greenhouse gases emission at the domestic level. Its major responsibility in global climate governance has been reduced significantly. The United States and China are said to be the two biggest emitters of green gas houses in the world. The collaboration of these two countries to provide necessary global climate governance leadership would improve efforts of reducing global emission[12]. On the contrary, the Trump administration is not willing to maintain its leadership role in global climate governance or fulfil its commitments to reduce emission.
The U.S. withdrawal indicates that president Trump is focused on improving the national economy rather than climate diplomacy. The primary objective of climate diplomacy is to attain a consensus on global emission targets as well as support climate cooperation through various diplomatic including appeal, persuasion, and enforcement[13].the Trump administration, on the other hand, do not have any plan to utilize its climate diplomatic resources to encourage other actors in climate recognize and take part in climate governance action initiatives. America has worsened the situation by denying its global climate governance obligation, making it difficult for China to promote the process of climate governance solely. Further, Climate change is more about enabling nations to deal with its impacts rather than reducing emission. There are no binding rules on planning and adaptation of global climate governance. China and the United States require tough climate diplomatic measures to prevent other international community members from violating prevailing agreements on climate governance[14]. However, such limitations no longer exist after the U.S. withdrawing from the Paris Agreement.
The Trump climate policy readjustment has not only damaged the global view of the U.S. as a responsible global governance leader but also negatively influenced other nations in the international community. During the Obama administration, U.S. and China effectively cooperated in global climate go[15]governance. Their commitments to reduce greenhouse gases emission provided great motivation for international community joint efforts to address climate change[16]. With Trump’s decision to exit from Paris agreement, it is projected that members of the international community may conform to this action, stop to participate in plans to address toward emission reduction as well as start implementing lower-standard policies to tackle climate change.
The U.S. unexpected renouncement of global climate leadership leads the world to place their hopes on China. Many argue that Trump is surrendering climate leadership to China. China ought to take the global climate governance leadership role and enhance its power status. SinceTrump administration is no longer interested in maintaining a cooperative leadership. China has a duty to positively respond to the expectations of all members in the Agreement and make necessary adjustments to its climate policy. China needs to be more active in global climate governance as well as promote the global governance process[17]. China needs to have a close relationship with other climate actors in global climate governance, conduct political negotiations, and intellectual exchange at all levels.
In general, Trump climate policy no longer focus on the objective of global climate governance. This has created a gap between the U.S. and other major countries in the process of governance. As discussed the cooperative leadership that once existed between China and the U.S. to foster strong joint actions of the international community in dealing with climate change is lacking. In the meantime, this has caused severe deficits in global climate governance leadership. Although the future direction of global climate governance is uncertain, there is a strong belief that the U.S. government would change its current attitude toward climate governance. It is expected that domestic and international momentum would lead the U.S. to develop ambitious action in global climate governance. Also, the U.S. would strengthen its cooperative leadership structure with China, thus positively influencing their commitments in addressing climate change.
Conclusion
The U.S. energy and climate policy have undergone remarkable changes since resident Trump entered office. His administration relishes reversing the climate policy of his predecessors. Trump adopted a very negative attitude toward climate governance and decided to withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement. He Opposes Obama notion that the Paris Agreement advances U.S. climate security, support low carbon economy and renewable energy industry. Trump believes that the Agreement weakens U.S. competitiveness as well as damage the fossil fuel industry and employment.
The U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement has dramatically impacted global climate governance. At present, the U.S. significant responsibility in global climate governance has been reduced significantly. The government makes limited efforts in the reduction of greenhouse gases emission at the domestic level. Trump administration is not willing to maintain its leadership role in global climate governance or fulfil its commitments to reduce emission. During the Obama administration, the U.S. and China effectively cooperated in global climate governance. Their commitments to reduce greenhouse gases emission provided great motivation for international community joint efforts to address climate change. However, with Trump, China-U.S. cooperative leadership no longer exist.
Although the future direction of global climate governance is uncertain, there is a strong belief that the U.S. government would change its current attitude toward climate governance. It is expected that domestic and international momentum would lead the U.S. to develop ambitious action in global climate governance. Also, the U.S. would strengthen its cooperative leadership structure with China. In the meantime, Trump administration is no longer interested in maintaining a collective leadership. China has a duty to positively respond to the expectations of all members in the Agreement and make necessary adjustments to its climate policy. China needs to be more active in global climate governance as well as promote the global governance process in addressing climate change.
Bibliography
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[14] Yu, Hongyuan. 2018. “The U.S. Withdrawal From The Paris Agreement: Challenges And Opportunities For China”. China Quarterly Of International Strategic Studies 04 (02): 281-300. doi:10.1142/s2377740018500100.
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[17] Zhang, Hai-Bin, Han-Cheng Dai, Hua-Xia Lai, and Wen-Tao Wang. 2017. “U.S. Withdrawal From The Paris Agreement: Reasons, Impacts, And China’s Response”. Advances In Climate Change Research 8 (4): 220-225. doi:10.1016/j.accre.2017.09.002.