Intelligence issue:Implications of Iran-US Relationship Crisis

Intelligence issue:Implications of Iran-US Relationship Crisis

Introduction

if I was told to name two countries with the poorest relations, I would automatically name the US and Iran. Since 1980, the US and Iran have never had formal ties. Pakistan represents Iran in the US, while Switzerland represents the US in Iran. US and Iran have continuously quarreled over various issues, and especially the production of nuclear power. The US has even listed Iran on the terrorism list. In 2015, Iran and the P5+1 countries entered a deal, limiting Iran’s manufacturing program, where it was required to enhance monitoring in nuclear production weapons. Iran agreed to reduce the uranium content in its nuclear facilities and heed the policies of the international atomic energy inspection team, and in exchange, all the sanctions would be withdrawn, and the frozen property of about 10 million dollars generated from illegal dealing ith high content uranium equipment would be released.

Unfortunately, the US President, Donald Trump, withdrew from the joint comprehensive plan of action (JPOA). This was a very controversial move, and all allies were not in support of it. However, Trump reasoned that not even the agreement could stop an Iranian bombing. This move did not guarantee that Iran would get its property unfrozen even after the international atomic energy inspection team confirmed that Iran had been following the pact. People feared that this would retaliate and make high content uranium weapons. The tension between the two countries continues to increase as each fear attacks from the other. In January 2020, the tension between the two escalated further following the death of Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani in a US airstrike in Iraq. Iran retaliated and fired dozens of ballistic missiles at two military bases hosting US troops. This event led to tension in the whole world, and there were even rumors that there is a world war III around the corner. This leaves people asking the question of what will this rivalry result in?

This is a topic that every reader should care about. This is because this relationship crisis does not only affect the two countries but the world in general. Moreover, the economy of the two countries has been deeply affected and especially Iran, with Trump hauling sanctions after sanctions on them. This is a national security issue that needs a quick response. The rivalry between the two countries is a threat to the national security of the US. As seen, Iran retaliated and killed the American military that was based in Iraq. There has been an increase in the nuclear threat under Trump’s administration, which an alarming factor for the citizens. Iran is very unpredictable, and one never knows when it will attack the US. Iran’s attack on the USS would open ways for other countries such as Northern Korea to attack it too. This rivalry is not good for the US in any way.

research question

what is the effect of the Iran-US relationship crisis on the two countries or any other allies of the two countries?

This research will be explanatory research because the impacts of Iran- USA relation crisis has not been well researched in the past. The research will focus on explaining in detail the impacts this crisis has on the Americans, Uranians, as well as any other ally that might be affected by the relation. This way, the research will provide a better-researched model and will encourage future research on the topic.

The independent variable in this study is the relationship between Iran and the US, the Iran-US relationship. This is because it is the aspect that will bring impacts on the people in the two countries. The dependent variables include the social, economic, and political effects. There are obvious answers I expect for my research questions. Obviously, I do not expect positive answers bearing in mind there are no efforts made to efforts to solve this crisis. However, I want to know to do what extent the effects will be negative. The research question was developed by analyzing the background information on this topic and realizing there is too much tension between the two countries and other allied countries. Therefore I asked myself, how does it end? Got my research question, how does it impact people involved. The intelligence community must ask itself how the US-Iran rivalry will affect the common citizens and US relationship with its allies.

Section 2

A number of researchers have covered this topic. However, most have tried to research on this topic. However, most have covered the economic, political, and social impacts separately. Researchers like Lennie have researched the economic impacts of the nuclear deal on Iran’s economy while Roubini wrote the economic impact of the us-Iran crisis on the two country’s economies as well as global growth. However, there is not accumulated knowledge on this topic because the topic has not deeply been investigated. The most recent the most prevailing researchers in this topic are Najimdeen Bakare and Abdul Salami Ibrahim, who have don the most recent research on ramifications of US-Iran rapprochement. The greatest challenge will be finding recently done research about the current status of Iran-USA relations because this has been a very recent and only magazine article on the implications that are most available.

Annotated Bibliography

Bakare, Najimdeen & Ibrahim, Abdul. (2016). Strategic Impacts and Ramifications of U.S-Iran Rapprochement: The End of a Beginning. Academic Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies. 10.5901/ajis.2016.v5n1p153.

The authors of the article analyzed the impacts of the trade agreement between the USA and Iran. The author analyses the positive impacts of the deal while it lasted. Among the positive effects of this deal entailed regaining of European values, reshaping Iran’s political dynamics, and improvement of trade of oil between Russia, and Saudi Arabia. The relationship had improved and favored some businesses until the withdrawal of the USA from the agreement. This information is very important for my work as it will show how important a rapport is and the inverse impacts when the rapport is withdrawn.

Peppas, Stephanos. (2019). Iran-US Crisis in 2019.

In this article, the researcher explains how the contract has impacted the economic relationships at the international level. The article shows how the OPEC (organization of the petroleum countries) has had to stop oil production to modify prices. It also explains the measure that is being put to place to warn Iran that attacking the US would be a lifetime mistake. The countries on the international platform are also acting up, such as increased tension between Israel and Iran. Security issues on an international level. Economic stability, as well as diplomacy for the citizens of both country, are also at a risk

Grossman, Ephraim & Hoffman, Yaakov & Bodner, Ehud & Palgi, Yuval & Gottlieb, Merav & Mesika, Ofra & Ben-Ezra, Menachem & Shrira, Amit. (2016). Psychological Effects Following the Iran Nuclear Deal: Iranian Nuclear Threat Salience Moderates the Relationship between PTSD Symptoms and Sleep Problems. Psychiatry Research. 243. 10.1016/j.psychres.2016.06.032.

This article highlights the psychological effects of the nuclear deal among the people. Trump withdrew from the deal, man people panicked, when Iran threatened to go back to making a nuclear weapon of high uranium content. The researcher found that in that period, people presented with signs of stress disorder and sleeping problems. The thoughts of repeated nuclear bombing showed that people were not ready for the deal to go any way the researcher concluded that security issues be implemented to make people feel safer. This information is also quite vital for my research because it explains the physio-social effects of the crisis on the people.

Aslan, Murat. (2018). The Economic Consequences of the US Withdrawal from the Nuclear Deal. This article explains the effects of Trump’s withdrawal from  JCPOA. The article highlights countries that will suffer secondary sanctions of the primary sanctions implemented in Iraq by the USA. The article also highlights the products that will be affected on the international platform, such as oil trade and coffee from Saudi Arabia. In the shot, the author means that the sanctions will affect not only the USA and Iran but also global trading. This is a very useful source because it has exactly what I am looking for and will offer a good literature review.

Shah, Muhammad & Nawaz, Rab & Mahsud, Muhammad. (2019). Iran Nuclear Deal: Its Political and Economic Implications for the Region as a Whole and for Pakistan. Vestnik Volgogradskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Serija 4. Istorija. Regionovedenie. Mezhdunarodnye otnoshenija. 24. 259-267. 10.15688/jvolsu4.2019.5.19.

The authors of the article address the political and economic impacts of the nuclear deal of 2015. According to the author, the nuclear deal is quite famous in international politics. The author states that the deal is bound to have an implication of the middle west, turkey, south Arabia, and others, making them turn against the USA. The author also states that Iraq will, however, not attack the USA because it hs not such power. Since the deal was beneficial to the middle east and south Asia, then these countries will face huge economic losses thanks to the sanctions implemented.