Japan’s Population Challenges
Student’s Name
Professor’s Name
Course
Date
Country description
Japan is a sovereign island nation located in the Asian Continent’s eastern coast. Thus, Japan borders the Sea of Japan on the western side while bordering the Pacific Ocean to the east side. Notably, Japan extends approximately 3,000 kilometres from the rough Sea of Okhotsk northeastern side towards the famous East China Sea. As an island nation, “Japan comprises a strato-volcanic archipelago of 6,852 islands” (Takao, 2016). However, five of these islands (including Hokkaido, Okinawa, Shikoku, Kyushu and Honshu) form 97% of Japan’s land area that extends 377,975 Sq.km. Also, these five islands comprise 99% of Japan’s population.
Nonetheless, entire Japan’s landmass is divided into 47 different prefectures that historically exist in eight large regions (Yoshino & Taghizadeh-Hesary, 2014). Approximately 75 per cent of Japan terrain is mountainous while “the rest of the area constitutes low-lying coastal plains.” In light of this, Japan is one of the highly urbanized and densely populated sovereign nations globally, where the majority over 92% of the entire country’s population live in the cities and towns. Located in the largest Greater Tokyo Area, Tokyo is the most populous and the capital city of Japan. Besides, the Greater Tokyo Area is the World’s most populous metropolis that houses close to 40 million people. With approximately 98% of the country being ethnically Japanese and with a “total population of roughly 126.5 million people, Japan is the eleventh most populous country in the world” (Yoshino & Taghizadeh-Hesary, 2014).
Japan has a multi-party constitutional monarchial system with a bicameral parliamentary democratic representation of an Emperor and a Prime Minister. Notably, “the Prime Minister is the head of Japan’s government as well as the cabinet principal while the Emperor is only a ceremonial head of the state” (Yoshino & Taghizadeh-Hesary, 2014). The cabinet guides the executive arm of the Japanese government. Japanese political system is similar to most of the countries consisting of the executive, judiciary and the legislative branches.
Japan has two main religions, including Buddhism and Shinto. Notably, Shinto is the oldest religion coming from Japanese culture. On the other hand, Buddhism reached Japan in the 6th century from the mainland. Nonetheless, these two religions have harmoniously been complementing one another and co-existing. Although Japanese is the primary language in Japan, the other 14 Ryukyuan languages are spoken (Yoshino & Taghizadeh-Hesary, 2014). Both the Japanese and Ryukyuan languages have different dialects. For instance, the Japanese language has different dialects, such as Hachijo and Kyushu. Some of the “Ryukyuan languages include Okinawa, Amami, Yaeyama, Yonaguni, Kunigami and Miyako” (Takao, 2016). Regardless of the religious and language differences, Japan enjoys one of the World’s lucrative free-market economies. Japan is the World’s third-largest country in terms of nominal GDP and number four in terms of purchasing power.
Current demographic situation
A recent report by the OECD shows that Japan has a population of approximately 126.5 million people. Interestingly, Japan is one of the few “countries in the World with a declining population growth rate” (Heller, 2016). Presently, the country has a -0.3% growth rate. Besides, OECD claims that the country “has the highest old-age dependency ratio among all the OECD member states.” Currently, Japan has a ratio of more than 50 people aged 65 years or more for every 100 people between 20 and 64 years. According to the current UN data, Japan is projected to have an estimated population of 126,476,461 people by June 2020 (United Nations, 2019). This population is a decline of about 127 million people in 2018. As such, Japan’s population forms 1.62% of the World’s total population.
Japan’s Population Pyramid 2020
Of importance, the country has a population density of 347 per Km2. Notably, Japan has a fertility rate of 1.35 children per woman, which is a significant decline from 1.37 in 2019 (United Nations, 2019). Besides, the current TFR is below the World’s average TFR of 2.5 children per woman. The country registers a population decline due to increased mortality rate currently at 10.7 deaths for every 1000 persons and an infant mortality rate of 1.69 per every 1000 live births. Nonetheless, Japan has a life expectancy of 84.7 years. In the meantime, Japan records a net migration rate of 0.545 per 1000 population in 2020, which is a 1.64% decline from 0.553 per 1000 people in 2019.
Current population challenges
Like most of the countries in the World, Japan has a range of population challenges. This section discusses three different population challenges, including an ageing population, population decline and Old age dependency ratio.
Ageing population
Although high life expectancy is attractive to many people since every individual would wish to live long, the ageing population is one of the factors that is highly contributing to the population decline and other problems in Japan (Heller, 2016). This ageing population is causing high dependency ratios and other challenges in Japan. For example, the proportion of elderly retirees to that of active young persons in Japan is rising at a high rate. As such, people are overspending their lives drawing from the public coffers through medical care, pensions and other uses, rather than contributing to these funds. A social security system where people draws more than they pay into it is always unsustainable. Therefore, Japan is facing a big challenge of unsustainable social security system because of its ageing population. Currently, Japan realizes at least $1.06trn social welfare costs and an increasing public debt of 250% of the country’s GDP. The latter points to high possibilities of economic and social downfall.
Population decline
One of the significant challenges that Japan is currently facing is the population decline. The declining population is a challenge as observed from different facets, including lack of labour force in the future and low fertility rates and high mortality rates among other factors (Heller, 2016). Typically, more people bring in different ideas and thus, high levels of creativity and innovation. Therefore, the declining population in Japan is highly likely to stagnate research in the country, a situation that can cause lower living standards (Hsu & Yamada, 2019). Because many people would enhance innovation, the declining scenario in Japan can cause the country to experience moderate economic growth, which is a significant factor that influences poverty among people. More importantly, a declining population points out that people are likely to become extinct in the future. Ideally, population growth shows that people will continue to reproduce while permitting the continuity of humanity.
While a country with low population would be easy to manage, the latter in Japan depicts that the current low birth rates will result in either overworked older adults or increased importation of workforce. There is a challenge as it will cost the country dearly while causing the latter is the unprecedented cost of running the government. One of the major contributing factor to the declining population is the negative gap between the mortality rate and the birth rate. According to the World Health Organization, japan records at least 400,000 deaths more than the births. Besides, a slot women in Japan opt not to give birth to a fertility rate of 1.4 children per woman.
Old-age dependency ratio
Another critical population challenge in Japan is the old-age dependency ratio. According to the Japanese Statistics Bureau, Japan has the World’s highest dependency ratio of 69.2%. In 2018, Japan had a dependency ratio of 67%. The latter shows that almost every person at the age between 15 and 64 has at least an older adult to take care. OECD notes that Japan has the highest old-age dependency ratio amongst all the OECD countries (Guillemette & Stráský, 2017). A 69.2% dependency ratio is too high compared to the 54.36% world’s old-age dependency ratio. While this challenge causes low fertility and birth rate in the country, the reverse is also true. Thus, low fertility is a significant cause of high dependency ratios. Notably, high old-age dependency ratios influence low productivity among the active aged persons and hence a weak economy. Besides, high dependency ratio can affect mental challenges among the active population leading to stagnation on innovation and creativity in addition to poor performance at workplaces.
Population projections in 2050
According to a recent UN report, Japan’s population began to dwindle in 2011. For instance, in 2014, the country had an estimated population of 127 million (United Nations, 2019). However, current Japan’s population is about 126.5 million and is expected to reduce further to approximate 107 million in the next two decades. By 2050, the United Nations projects that Japan will have an approximate population of 97 million people given the current demographic trend. Another report by OECD shows that Japan’s old-age dependency ratio is the highest amongst all OECD member countries.
Population pyramid by 2050
United Nations projects that Japan will have a population of approximately 105 million people by 2050. Notably, Japan’s age dependency ratio stands at 53 persons aged 65 and beyond for every 100 people at the ages between 20 and 64 (United Nations, 2018). As illustrated in the above population pyramid, the United Nations projects this ratio to go up to at least 79 old age persons for every 100 people aged between 20 and 64. Besides, the above pyramid depicts that the number of men will have declined beyond three times that of women (Shirakawa, 2011). As such, the population will face critical challenges including lack of labour force, a weak economy and hence high levels of poverty. Often, poverty increases crime rates, and consequently, japan will have increased crime rates. Also, the country will have stagnated innovations due to the lack of a pool of fresh ideas (Hsu & Yamada, 2019). The age structure will change in a way that most of the newborns will have a life expectancy of about 100 years and very high dependency ratio. Further, the country will have a net migration rate of 0.545 per 1000 population by 2050. Therefore, these challenges will greatly affect the previously identified population challenges. For instance, the latter shows that women will have higher life expectancy ration than men and hence further lowering the mortality rates since more women will continue to choose a career than a family. As such, population decline will continue and the ageing challenge will persist. Therefore, Japan will continue to experience inadequate labor force.
Future population challenges
From the above discussions and analysis, it is clear that Japan will have critical challenges going to the future. The following three problems are highly likely to affect Japan’s population.
Ageing population
Presently, Japan is still experiencing an ageing population problem. According to the OECD and United Nations report, more than 33% of Japan’s population is aged 65 years and above. Besides, 12.5 % of the population is beyond 75 years (United Nations, 2018). According to the International Monetary Fund, Japan’s ageing population negatively affects labor force while dragging the country’s economic growth. United Nations estimates that more than 40% of Japan’s population will be beyond 65 years by 2050. The current World’s age dependency ratio is 54.36. Japan has a very high age dependency ratio of 69.2 compared to the World’s dependency ratio of 54.36. Besides, both OECD and the United Nations projects this ratio to rise to 79 for every 100 population (Guillemette & Stráský, 2017). The latter shows that Japan’s dependency ratio will be higher than the projected World’s ratio of 58. The current causes of Japan’s ageing population will prevail beyond 2050. One of the major causes of the projected country’s ageing population is the slower population growth mainly due to projected continuous low fertility rate. Another cause is the projected high elderly proportion in the country’s total population. Other important factors contributing to the ageing population include improved nutrition, pharmacological technologies and advanced medical technologies that significantly improve living conditions while lowering prevalence to diseases.
Low fertility
Japan has a fertility rate of 1.43 children per woman lower than the World’s rate of 2.4 children. As such, the country records a low birth rate of 7.34 for every 1000 births compared to the global birth rate of 18.5 per 1000 births (Hsu & Yamada, 2019). By 2050, the country’s birth rate will decline further to 6.9 per thousand births despite the projected World’s growth birth rate to 19.3 per thousand births. According to the United Nations’ projections, the birth rate in a number of developing nations will have a steady growth and hence overall increased birth rate. The low birth rate will be a major problem for Japan as it will continue to experience high dependencies, lack of labor force and poor economy. Besides, the latter will lead to the population decline that will, in turn, cause a weak market and hence low GDP per capita. By 2050, many women will have joined and continue to prefer career over family growth. Therefore, women will not be able to balance jobs and family and hence low fertility of less than 1.3 per woman by 2050. Most importantly, high dependency ratios reduce the country’s population. Notably, the active age in Japan has a high burden of taking care of the elderly and hence opting to limit the number of children in their families.
High public debt
Japan is the third World’s largest economy behind China and the United States. However, the country’s economy is on the decline. Since the economic crisis of 2007/2008, Japan’s economy has never been growing. According to the International Monetary Fund, Japan has a very high debt-to-GDP ratio of 236%. A country with high debt-to-GDP raterate has high chances of defaulting or straining to repay the debt. A recent survey by the World Bank found that more than 77% of a country’s debt-to-GDP ratio points to high chances of an economic slowdown. Japan has a GDP per capita of $50,200. With the current high dependency ratio and an ageing population that will hardly contribute to the tax revenue in the future, Japan will have a slowed-down slowed-down economy. Also, Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to be higher than 260% by 2050. Notably, Japan will have increased expenditure in non-revenue generating areas, including paying pensions and health (Guillemette & Stráský, 2017). Also, the country will have a decline in the labour force, causing an economic downturn in the future.
Policy recommendations
Japan can overcome both the current and projected population challenges by creating progressive policies. This document recommends the following policies to avert the above-discussed population challenges.
One of the most feasible policy is increased retirement age. With the knowledge that Japan has an ageing problem that is expected to continue beyond 2050, increasing the retirement age can help the country restore its economy and perhaps address other challenges. Although Japan has the World’s aged population, its retirement age is 60 years. Notably, the country has life highest life expectancy of more than 84 years (Shirakawa, 2011). As such, it is increasing retirement age would permit more tax revenue in addition to higher consumer spending. These two elements are critical to lifting a country’s economic growth.
Most importantly, this policy will enhance the social security system since the significant population will contribute to the social security fund rather than drawing from the fund. Immigration policy is another practical policy that can help Japan overcome the challenges emerging from the ageing population. Encouraging immigration will permit increased labour force necessary for growing the country’s economy. Encouraging immigration will drastically reduce the dependency ratio. As observed, high dependency ratios tend to reduce fertility among the active population because of high burdens of caring for the elderly. In light of this, encouraging immigration for the youths can boost the working population in Japan and stimulate economic growth, reduce financial stress and promote fertility while mitigating population decline. For example, using the migration policy to offset the country’s declining population, Russia increased its population with close to 100, 000 immigrants by 2017 (Panda, 2017).
Nonetheless, Japan can work on its declining population and low fertility problem through a new mothers’ package policy. One way that Japan can encourage increased fertility is rewarding new mothers and subsidizing various services for families with newborns. Usually, young couples opt not to increase the number of children because every child will be a burden in addition to the charge of caring to other elderly persons in the family or society. Therefore, eliminating the responsibility to raise the child until a certain age can encourage young couples to have more children. The government can provide other essential needs like housing to young couples.
References
Guillemette, Y. & Stráský, J. (2017). Japan’s challenging debt dynamics. OECD. Retrieved from http://www.oecd.org/economy/growth/Japan-s-challenging-debt-dynamics-OECD-Journal-Economic-Studies-2014.pdf
Heller, P. S. (2016). The challenge of an aged and shrinking population: Lessons to be drawn from Japan’s experience. The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, 8, 85-93.
Hsu, M., & Yamada, T. (2019). Population ageing, health care, and fiscal policy reform: The challenges for japan. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 121(2), 547-577.
Jozuka, E., Yeung, J. & Kwon, J. (2019). Japan’s birth rate hit another record low in 2019. CNN. retrieved from https://edition.cnn.com/2019/12/25/asia/japan-birthrate-hnk-intl/index.html
OECD. (2019). Further reforms in Japan needed to meet the challenges of population ageing and high public debt. Retrieved from https://www.oecd.org/japan/further-reforms-in-japan-needed-to-meet-the-challenges-of-population-ageing-and-high-public-debt.htm
Panda, R. (2017). Japan’s declining population and demographic challenges. Estudos Japoneses, (38), 67-80.
Shirakawa, M. (2011). Globalization and population ageing: challenges facing Japan. Speech to the Board of Councillors of Nippon Keidanren, December, 22.
Takao, Y. (2016). Japan’s Environmental Politics and Governance: From Trading Nation to EcoNation. Taylor & Francis.
United Nations (2018). Government response to low fertility in Japan. Retrieved from https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/events/pdf/expert/24/Policy_Briefs/PB_Japan.pdf
United Nations. (2019). World population Prospects. Retrieved from https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/DemographicProfiles/Pyramid/392
Yoshino, N., & Taghizadeh-Hesary, F. (2014). An analysis of challenges faced by Japan’s economy and Abenomics. The Japanese Political Economy, 40(3-4), 37-62.