Market Analysis
- The Debt Market The effective interest rates achieved by TBills (discounted), Fixed Income Funds and ETF this week were 19%p.a. , 20%p.a. and 20%p.a. respectively.
- Largest Valued Trade The largest Valued Trade worth US$24 million belonged to Khorasan Sugar Co.
- Market Activities The market continued its upward trend from last week until Wednesday being the last day of the week. On that day, the market initially during the first hour continued its positive trend. However, soon after that, the selling started with some vengeance and the all-share index after losing most of its daily gain by 1,200 points reached the 361,000 level. However, the all-share weighted index continued to rise by another 700 points and reached the 114,000 level. At this time Farabourse being the junior market lost 5 points and reached the 4,600 level. Mobarakeh Steel 410 points made the highest negative impact on the all-share index, Gol-Gohar 296 points and Chador Malo 206 points. At the same time, the Auto industry major companies had the most positive impact on the index by 134 points and 113 points. It is believed that as long as the current flow of new liquidity continues the prospect of rising market expectations. However, professional investors have the following main concerns: 3 1. The new draft law concerning the tax exemption of the asset’s revaluation of companies currently being submitted to the Parliament. 2. The value and volume of monthly sales of companies to be published in their monthly reports. 3. The fate of FATF in the days and weeks ahead. It is anticipated that the market in the short term will be subject to some volatilities and may turn negative. However, in the medium term, it is expected the market to continue its positive trend for the time being.
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- Base Metals & Mining Basic Metals Price Lead US$ Copper US$ Zinc US$ Aluminum US$ World 1,936 6,261 2,293 1,816 Iran 1,780 5,345 2,009 1,704 The total monthly sales of Iran National Copper Ind being the third-largest company of the market reached US$170 million last month showing an increase of 233% against the corresponding month last year. The total sales for the last nine months also show an increase of 138% against the corresponding period last year. Of the above monthly total, 47% related to exports at LME premium prices of 50%. This was also relevant about Khuzestan Steel by 22%, Mobarekeh Steel by 32%, Sepid Farab Kavir by 142%, Hormozgan Co by 96% & Kaveh Steel by 10%. The Ministry of Industry also confirmed that Iran mining productions had not only met the needs of the local industry but also would have the exports worth between US$9 and US$10 billion by the end of the year. According to Isfahan Steel, their total exports to date reached 877 million tonnes which compared against the corresponding period last year showed 30% growth. It anticipates that their total exports will reach 1.2 million tonnes by the end of the year.
- Oil & Energy Oil & Energy Brent Oil U$S Texas Oil U$S Price 68 61 4 Oil prices rose on Friday, hitting three-month highs after data showed record online spending by U.S. consumers, stoking faith in the world’s no. 1 economy even before the hoped-for end to the trade war between Washington and Beijing. A survey on Thursday showed that online holiday purchases by U.S. consumers reached a record, beating analysts’ expectations and sending U.S. stocks to fresh. U.S. consumers are “showing few signs of tightening their purse strings, which is positive for oil also,” said Stephen Innes chief Asia market strategist at AxiTrader. Oil prices have also buoyed by robust hopes that the New Year will usher in the end to the longrunning U.S.-China trade tariff war, a dispute that has overshadowed global economic growth prospects and left question marks over future demand for crude. The lingering ripple effect of the trade row showed up again in data from Japan, the world’s third-biggest economy, on Friday showing that industrial output shrank for a second month in November. Still, the price Brent has jumped more than a quarter in 2019, while WTI is up around 35%, boosted by moves by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other producers, including Russia, to curb production. Earlier this month OPEC and its allies agreed to extend and deepen those cuts. “The short-term momentum remains positive although I expect Asia to content itself with remaining on the sidelines today,” said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst, at OANDA.
- Housing The housing prices in Tehran after four months of decline were on the rise again last month. The average square meter in Tehran has now risen to US$1,048, which compared against last month shows a 6.8% rise and against the corresponding month, last year shows a 39.9% rise. With effect from this month housing loan to married couples will increase to US$15,500 per couple.
- Macro Economy According to the Statistical Dept, the rate of inflation for the last 12 months ended last month was 40% which Compare against the corresponding period last year shows a fall of 1.1%. However, the rate of inflation of food and beverages, which has the largest impact on a family’s budget for the last 12 months reached 55.7%.