The Future of Diesel Cars in Europe

The Future of Diesel Cars in Europe

Over the next decades, more than 24 European cities will ban diesel-operated vehicles. This is due to the direct consequences of Emissionsgate, which impelled bans and restrictions on all older diesel cars in most cities. With the charging infrastructure to electric vehicles being developed and battery costs remaining prohibitive in many segments, drivers are now switching from diesel to petrol automobiles leading to minimized CO2 emissions. This piece highlights more on the future of diesel cars in Europe.

Despite the continuous fall in diesel shares of new car sales in the EU since the scandal, various trends have been established in different countries. One compelling case being in Germany, where the shares have been dropping since 2016, with acceleration in 2017 when different cities started taking actions by restricting diesel car circulation. After the slowdown within the pace of deadlines in 2018, the shares stabilized and increased within the first half of 2019.

After all this, it was possible to conclude that diesel has experienced it worst and that their shares will increase mainly with 2021 targets. However, recent car sales got impacted by another vital factor; the conversion from NEDC to WLTP emissions testing cycle in September 2018. The transition, as explained in recent articles on clean transportation, saw VW vehicles taking longer in getting approved under new test procedures. However, the certification was finalized towards the closing year, and all sales bounced back. Nonetheless, gasoline vehicles did not get the certification, thus making the shares of diesel vehicles stable, particularly in countries where Audi and VW vehicles have a more substantial presence including Austria and Germany.

If the vehicles are important for the manufacturers to achieve the 95g CO2/km target by 2021, then the prospects for internal combustion engines surely looks uncertain with the future CO2 goals. In 2018, the EU made confirmations of a 15%reduction target for the year 2025 based on 2021 WLTP baseline and 37.5% reductions in 2030.

To meet such limits, vehicle manufactures have no option but to electrify faster. Nissan and Renault, being the first to establish ambitious electric penetrations target, still aspire to achieve 20 to 30 per cent shares in electric vehicles by the year 2025. Toyota and GM also have similar objectives, whereby VW targets 40% global share by 2030.

Even with consumers forsaking diesel vehicles, they are also not embracing the electric vehicles because of the lack of charging infrastructure. The sales of EVs and hybrid cars across Europe only made up to three per cent of the total vehicle sales. This indicates a very slow switch.

The long-term future of diesel vehicles in Europe is, therefore, lacklustre. Many industries professional expect the share of the cars will continue to go down from30% in 2019 to 10% or even lower in 2030. However, the pace will not only be dictated by the battery costs as well as EV incentives but by how good gasoline, hybrid and diesel vehicles adapt to the final round of real-world driving principles.

The future focusing on environmentally-friendly vehicles necessitates the use of proper and effective cars; however, the switch will take years to be fully operative. This means that adequate approaches have to be set for the switch to be comfortable and productive. This will aid in ensuring that car owners do not have a hard time during the transitions.