Decision making analysis

Decision making analysis

Chapter 15

No one can’t face pitfall when using data to back up the toughest choices, even if one uses the best analytic tool. There are several pitfalls, but Megan and Kristina talk about three of them. The first pitfall, according to this chapter, is the confirmation trap. This trap occurs when people more attention to findings that align with what they thought before. It can be difficult to avoid it due to pressure from peers and bosses. However, there are several ways one can use to prevent confirmation trap. One can actively look for findings that disapprove of their beliefs, being specific in advance, avoiding automatically, taking the findings as predictions, and assigning several independent teams to analyze the data. The other one is the overconfidence trap, which occurs by assuming the accuracy of our judgment. There are also ways to avoid this trap, for instance, describing the perfect experiment, making it a formal part of the processes, launching a project before making a decision, and keeping track of the predictions. The third trap is over-fitting. This can be overcome by keeping the analysis simple, specifying connections, dividing data randomly into two sets, and having alternative narratives.

Chapter 22

According to Nick, decisions do not begin with data; decisions start from the mind, where they are made. An executive Nicked worked with had to persuade them to drop a longtime vendor to support a new vendor. This was not an easy task for him since he had to persuade them to support him. He wanted to use data using PowerPoint to show them the data analysis that showed why they had to drop the former vendor. Nick states that although data is useful as a supporting material, these needs also to influence the decision-makers. Therefore, to influence human decision making, one has to get to the area where decisions are really made. In the unconscious mind, decisions are made through emotions since there is no data.

The gut to move forward show that one has already decided to move forward unconsciously based on one’s desire. For example, the executive was advised to tell a story of future progress. It is evident that data can help provide insight and evidence for making tough choices, but they have to be used together with good stories to trigger the emotions in the unconscious mind.

Critical Issues

Chapter 15

The first issue is of over-fitting trap since it can make it hard to predict the future. The trap happens when the statistical model explains random noise instead of describing the underlying connections one has to capture. The other issues of persistent bias which can creep back into the decision making and have mistaken in the future. It is critical since it can influence processes when the decision has already been made. The final critical issue among the three I found to be most crucial is the idea of people failing to process all pieces of information in every decision carefully. This is critical since this is why people face pitfalls. People will make choices in the face of uncertainty.

Chapter 22

There are several critical issues in this chapter, as described by Nick Morgan. The first critical issue is that data don’t work alone in decision making. One has to use the unconscious area of the kind by telling stories to trigger emotions. Another critical issue is that members could not listen again to the presentation since it was not appealing to them. It is critical since the executive wanted to persuade them, but they could not be persuaded if they failed to listen. The idea of willing to replace a vendor is also critical. This is because the executive had to persuade the members to support this idea. The issue becomes critical because the members had a well-established connection with the vendor, and therefore it was difficult to support the idea of dropping him. They had to be persuaded to allow the firm to make this change. It becomes even more critical because they were using data only to persuade them. Nick Morgan has said that decisions come from the section where they are really made.

Lessons learned

Chapter 15

I have learned many lessons; however, there are the most crucial lessons I have learned. I have learned to be aware of the common-making pitfalls and use useful processes and cognitive strategies to avoid them. Although it can be challenging to identify mistakes, I can proactively handle these biases with the right mindset. I have also learned that data can never truly speak for itself, and it has to depend on humans interpreters to make sense of it. This is why the talks about keeping the analysis simple. To prevent mistakes in the future, I have learned to revisit reports regularly to keep track of my predictions.

Chapter 22

I have learned several things from this chapter since it highlights vital issues. The first thing I have realized from the chapter concerning decision making is that the unconscious mind makes better decisions when left alone to tackle the complicated problems. I have also learned that it is necessary to use data carefully since it can spur thinking in the unconscious mind. It is, therefore, evident that effective persuasion begins with stories but not data. This brings in the third thing I learned in this chapter-number alone won’t convince people. Data can offer insight and evidence to inform tough choices, but it has to go together with persuasion- using stories that will trigger emotions in the unconscious mind area.

Best Practices

Chapter 15

The first practice from this chapter is dealing with the over-fitting trap by keeping the analysis simple and randomly dividing it into two. This can be effective, and it can also help in specifying relationships one is testing. The other practice is describing one’s perfect experiment to help in dealing with the overconfidence trap. The other best practice is using several independent teams to analyze data separately. This is the best practice since they will have conclusions that will be compared and determine the differences that come from errors or bias and make informed decisions.

Chapter 22

The first best practice from this chapter is how the executive used a PowerPoint presentation. The presentation was well prepared since t was full of stats and charts indicating the cost-saving they could achieve by dropping the longtime vendor in favor of a new one. Although it could not be effective, it was the best practice since the members got an idea. The other practice is using the unconscious mind area as a source to make decisions. Here it is possible to make a decision due to emotions. Finally, the most crucial practice from this chapter is using both the data and the unconscious mind to make decisions. This is because the data will provide evidence to already made decisions.

Relation to the Topics Covered

Chapter 15 is related to the topics covered. The topic is all about making an informed decision. The topics covered, like the chapter, talks about analyzing data in the process of making decisions to ensure one makes the right decision for their business. The chapter relates to the topics covered since the topic is all about decision making. The chapter offers an insight hot to make well-informed decisions.

Alignment to Class Concepts

The chapter aligns with class concepts since it mostly covers decision making. What are different is the traps. The class concept doesn’t have the idea of traps discussed in the chapter and how to deal with them. The chapter aligns with the class concept in that the class covered the process of decision making, and it mentioned a step where data is analyzed and a decision made based on the results.