Scenario planning

Scenario planning

Scenario planning is referred as contingency planning. Scenario planning can also be defined as thinking about the future in a structured manner. In this kind of planning the management may develop stories based on the future and how this may affect the business. These stories enable the company to adapt to the dynamic environment. In one way or the other company is able to predetermine the path to take in in case of contingencies. Elements of system thinking are also contained in scenario thinking where a contingent future may be created by combining complex elements (Peterson et al., 2003).

How is scenario planning different from strategic planning?

Scenario planning and strategic thinking differ in some way. Strategic planning can simply mean a long-term planning on achievement of organization’s strategic objectives. On the other hand, scenario planning involves forecasting the future will be and acting today for better future. Scenario planning is more of ‘what if’ questions and using the situation to prevent any contingent activity which might occur in the future in the present days (Schoemaker, 1995) while Strategic planning is an organizational management style that involves defining the company long-term objective and making decisions concerning the allocation of resources and pursuing the strategy. The company’s top management is normally tasked with the role of developing the strategic plan.

Why is scenario planning important in a changing context?

Scenario planning is very vital in dynamic business environment because it provides already established and approved ways of approaching contingent occurrences. Business environment is very dynamic and as such requires understanding of the future for survival and sustainability.

How you might use scenario planning in your own professional circumstances.

Scenario planning can be used to determine the future needs of a growing population. Estimation of the future population growth rate will enable you to understand what needs to be invested today in terms of health and food production that will sustain the projected demographics.

Why do people who see the world in a linear process less likely to use scenario planning?

The linear process involves setting strategic goals that should be attained within a specific period of time. This means that strategic planners think in a linear way. They work towards certain specific objectives and hence spend less time in scenario planning. It is until when they are faced by a contingent event that they work to fix it.

References

Schoemaker, P. J. (1995). Scenario planning: a tool for strategic thinking.

Peterson, G. D., Cumming, G. S., & Carpenter, S. R. (2003). Scenario planning: a tool for conservation in an uncertain world.